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Sat November 30, 2013
Fish and Game Issues a Revised 2014 Bristol Bay Sockeye Forecast
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game has admitted to an error in the recently released 2014 sockeye salmon forecast. That error resulted in a revised forecast that was released last week.
Right at the top of the revised forecast the Alaska Department of Fish and Game notes that following the release of the original forecast they discovered a database error that prompted a re-evaluation of the data. That re-evaluation lowers the total sockeye forecast by about 620-thousand fish. The new forecast anticipates a sockeye run next year of 26.58-million sockeye. The previous forecast anticipated a total run of 27.2-million fish. The anticipated commercial harvest in Bristol Bay at 16.86-million sockeye. That’s down from the 17.48-million fish harvest included in the previous forecast.
The new forecast anticipates a total sockeye run to the Naknek-Kvichak District of 10.51-million fish. That’s up from the 10.5-million fish anticipated in the previous forecast. The new forecast anticipates a sockeye run to the Egegik District of 4.65-million fish, which is up slightly from the 4.64-million fish anticipated in the previous forecast. For the Ugashik District, the new forecast puts the total run at 1.81-million sockeye. That’s down from the 1.89-million fish anticipated in the previous forecast The most significant change from the previous forecast to the new forecast is in the Nushagak District. The previous forecast anticipated a run of 9.42-million sockeye. In that new forecast that run is put at 8.88-million sockeye. For the Togiak District the new forecast puts the sockeye run at 720-thousand fish. That’s down from the 750-thousand fish in the previous forecast. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game confirms that next year’s forecasted run of 26.58-million sockeye is 32-percent below the previous 10-year mean, which is 38.98-million sockeye. The anticipated Bristol Bay harvest of 16.86-million sockeye would be 37-percent lower than the previous 10-year mean of 26.71-million fish.
Fish and Game anticipates that next year’s run will be made up of 9.99-million age 1.2-fish, 8.97-million age 1.3-sockeye, 4.95-million age 2.2-fish, and 2.56-million age 2.3-sockeye. The revised 2014 Bristol Bay sockeye forecast can be found on the website of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.