Range of 44-63 million the largest forecast in 20 years, and is larger than the historical average by 20 million sockeye.
(To see the Univ. of Washington FRI's forecast, click here...)
The Department of Fish and Game released the 2015 preseason forecast for the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery, and it's a big one.
"This is a very big forecast," said Tim Sands, area manager for the Nushagak District based in the Dillingham office.
Fish and Game predicts a total run 0f 53.9 million sockeye, within a range of 44.8-63.1 million.
"We haven't had a forecast this big since probably 1995," said Sands.
The forecast predicts a harvest of 38 million sockeye, a full ten million more than this past season, which many considered a good year.
The 2014 run actually came in 53 percent higher than its preseason forecast. Down south, the gargantuan run predicted in the Fraser River came in much lower than expected.
In other words, there is always variability in the forecasts. Fish and Game admits they are "inherently difficult and uncertain." But according to Sands, others who prepare Bristol Bay forecasts are also predicting a big run in 2015.
"Everybody seems pretty optimistic about the return next year," he said. "Everybody's looking at all the data in different ways, and they're all coming up with numbers around 50 million, total run. I think that shows that the run is healthy and sustainable."
A run of 54 million sockeye would be considerably above the long term average (1963-2014) of 32 million to Bristol Bay. It would also mean Bristol Bay will comfortably retain the title of world’s greatest sockeye producer, likely by a wide margin.
Total runs, by district:
- Naknek-Kvichak = 28.8 million
- Egegik = 12.5 million
- Ugashik = 3.7 million
- Nushagak = 8.3 million