The 2016 Togiak forecast is similar to last year, but management could be a little different if there's no tower to count sockeye there.
Fish and Game released it's 2016 Bristol Bay forecast last week, and we've broken it down by district with a conversation with each manager: Egegik and Ugashik, Nushagak, Naknek-Kvichak.
Togiak, like usual, has the smallest sockeye run expected next summer, with 660,000 forecast.
Togiak Area Biologist Matt Jones said returns in his district have been fairly small since 2013, and next year’s forecast is no exception.
“On the positive side, it’s above the 2015 forecast," Jones said. "That gives us some optimism that things will be a little bit better, but the Togiak is very consistent. And we’ve definitely seen that the last three years when the total run the last three years has been within 20,000 fish each year. So that’s the definition of consistency.”
In 2015, the escapement was estimated at about 218,700 reds, within the goal range. But right now, there’s no funding for a counting tower at Togiak next summer. While the run should have enough fish to meet the escapement goal, Jones said it’ll be harder to manage without a count.
“Looking ahead, if we manage without a counting tower, it will definitely mean less fishing time," Jones said. "We’ll have to be much more conservative, we’ll have to use our long data set we have of catch per unit effort, which is far from ideal. Without a tower we would estimate escapement based on how the commercial fleet does in the bay.”
But a little brighter spot for the district, is that it usually has bigger fish, and Jones said there’s no reason to expect that to change this summer.
“Togiak’s used to seeing these massive fish, bigger at any age versus other districts," Jones said.
If the forecast holds true, fishermen should be able to harvest about 440,000 of them.
